Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS
Colloquia & Seminars

Speaker:	许利枝副教授，北京联合大学
Inviter:
Title:	Trends in income and price elasticities of international tourism demand in China: a panel data approach
Time & Venue:	2021.10.22 10:00-11:00 N502
Abstract:	Based on panel data, this study estimates the trends in income and price elasticities of international tourism demand from 1995 to 2019 in China and monitors the evolution of consumer behaviors after going through several external shocks (Asian and Global financial crisis, SARS event) and internal structural changes (Chinese policy reforms). For Chinese international tourism demand, the evidence demonstrated that there exist clear and observable increasing trends of both income elasticity and price elasticity (in absolute value), suggesting more and more sensitive to income and price for international tourists to China. The increasing trend was mainly due to the above negative shocks and structure changes, which might have contributed to the increasing uncertainty among international tourists, who as a result might gradually consider travel to China as more of a luxury compare to other substitute destinations. Results also indicate both positive relationships for income elasticity and price elasticities (in absolute value) with the price level index in China since 1995. Another, the persistent trend of income and price elasticities might possibly result from the continuously increasing trend of the on-the-ground living cost in China. From economic theory perspective, price elasticity can be broken down into the income and substitution effects. Some insights on the further international tourism demand trends and scenarios in China are also provided.